Test Case Example
Objective: To simulate the task duration for a project using a combination of Three-Point Estimation and Monte Carlo Simulation with multiple developers.
Input Values:
- Optimistic (O) Value: 2 days
- Most Likely (M) Value: 5 days
- Pessimistic (P) Value: 9 days
- Number of Developers: 3
- Number of Cases to Simulate: 10,000
Expected Result: A bar chart showing the distribution of estimated durations across 10,000 simulations, with a red vertical line indicating the average estimated duration of approximately 1.88 days.
Explanation: The simulation combines Three-Point Estimation and Monte Carlo Simulation to provide a realistic view of task durations:
- Three-Point Estimation: This method provides a balanced estimate using the Optimistic (O), Most Likely (M), and Pessimistic (P) values. The formula
(O + 4M + P) / 6 calculates an expected duration, adjusted for the most likely scenario.
- Monte Carlo Simulation: By adding random variation, Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of scenarios to reflect the real-world variability in project tasks. Each simulation slightly adjusts the estimated task duration, capturing potential delays or accelerations that arise due to unpredictable factors.
- Dividing by Developers: Since multiple developers are working on the task, the calculated estimate is divided by the number of developers (3). This represents the collective effort and shortens the overall completion time per developer.
As a result, the estimated average duration per developer is approximately 1.88 days, accounting for team effort and project uncertainty.
This simulation combines Three-Point Estimation and Monte Carlo Simulation to estimate project durations.
Inputs:
- Optimistic (O): Best-case scenario for task duration in days.
- Most Likely (M): Most realistic scenario, considering typical conditions.
- Pessimistic (P): Worst-case scenario, accounting for potential setbacks.
- Number of Developers: The number of team members working on the task.
- Number of Cases to Simulate: Number of random samples for estimating possible task durations.
Output: The chart displays the distribution of estimated task durations in days, with a red line marking the average duration, indicating the most likely completion time for the project.